A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
